Global warming: want to see Northwest impacts? Just look around

(This article caught my attention, especially the news that Alaskan winters are running nearly 6.5 degrees F. warmer than average. The result: beetles aren't being killed off during the winter months - they're destroying millions of acres of rich forestland from Alaska and British Columbia into the U.S. Rocky Mountains. My fear: the beetle infestation works its way east into Minnesota's hardwood forests and the BWCA. Is that what its going to take for the professional skeptics to wake up and admit something is going on? Lately I've read some articles linking people concerned about climate change with evolution and abortion rights. It made my blood boil: everywhere you turn there's a new conspiracy theory, zealots stereotyping anyone and everyone who looks at the [real] science and jumps to conclusions - we're all socialists or communists, this is merely a smokescreen for the government to take away our personal rights, blah, blah, blah. Say what you will, but the science is unequivocal now. There IS a global problem. Just because we all experience day to day weather does not make us experts on climate change. For the record I don't pretend to be a climate scientist, but I've been following the science closely. Everyone from the National Academy of Science to the National Science Fund and the American Meteorological Society agrees that climate change is real. This is the result of peer-reviewed science, not some wing-nut with a blog. What's it going to take for the skeptics to admit they've been misleading people, twisting the science and the truth in the process? Most logical, rational people [of both parties] who actually examine the data come to the conclusion that something is going on. To believe otherwise, with the preponderance of evidence, is disingenuous. It's not science but dogma, adherence to a world-view and philosophy that can't get past the fact that man might actually impact the world around him. Actions have consequences. To pretend that a 38% spike in greenhouse gases, most of that in the last 50 years, will have NO impact is dangerously naive, borderline pathological. I'm conservative in most aspects of my life, but that doesn't negate the science, it doesn't trump the facts. Climate change is slow-motion global transformation. You can't look out your window, looking at WEATHER, and use that as an argument disputing what's happening worldwide. Unless you're seeing new trees, flowers, shrubs and birds in your yard that weren't there a generation ago. Sorry for the rant, but I'm increasingly frustrated with the denier's refusal to open their eyes and SEE what's happening all around them. The slow trickle of evidence has turned into a torrent. This article is another piece of the puzzle).

By JOEL CONNELLY
SEATTLEPI.COM STAFF

Living in a corner of America powered, irrigated and inspired by water, we ought to treat Tuesday's report released by the White House, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, as a wake-up call and cold shower.

"We are the alpha and the omega of global warming," said Rep. Jay Inslee, D-Wash., who helped write a flawed -- but needed -- bill to change national energy policy. It's pending in the House.

Want to know how climate change is changing America? Read the report. Want its bottom line: "Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced." Changes "are expected to increase."

Want to see impacts on the Northwest? Just look around, something that global-warming skeptics resolutely refuse to do.

Global warming is shrinking the winter snowpack. A smaller snowpack means reduction in the runoff that sustains our river flows, makes the desert bloom, allows salmon to reach and return from the ocean, and powers the world's greatest hydroelectric system.

The consequences don't end when our rivers reach salt water.

"Climate change and ocean acidification are already having major impacts on Washington: Our $100 million shellfish industry is in crisis after four years of oyster reproductive failure from ocean acidification," said Sen. Maria Cantwell, D-Wash.

The complete article at SeatlePI.com is here.

Oceans rising faster than UN predicted, scientists say

By Alex Morales

June 18 (Bloomberg) -- Polar ice caps are melting faster and oceans are rising more than the United Nations projected just two years ago, 10 universities said in a report suggesting that climate change has been underestimated.

Global sea levels will climb a meter (39 inches) by 2100, 69 percent more than the most dire forecast made in 2007 by the UN’s climate panel, according to the study released today in Brussels. The forecast was based on new findings, including that Greenland’s ice sheet is losing 179 billion tons of ice a year.

“We have to act immediately and we have to act strongly,” Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told reporters in the Belgian capital. “Time is clearly running out.”

In six months, negotiators from 192 nations will meet in Copenhagen to broker a new treaty to fight global warming by limiting the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels and clearing forests.

“A lukewarm agreement” in the Danish capital “is not only inexcusable, it would be reckless,” Schellnhuber said.

Fossil-fuel combustion in the world’s power plants, vehicles and heaters alone released 31.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, 1.8 percent more than in 2007, according to calculations from BP Plc data.

To read the complete article click here.

Amazing video of the Austin, Minnesota tornado

Amazing storm chasing video of the Austin, Minnesota tornado is here (thanks to Brad Nelson from DTN in the Twin Cities).

From KEYC-TV in Mankato:

Residents in Austin spent much of the day cleaning up after strong storms last night.The National Weather Service says one tornado touched down Northwest of Austin.The tornado track was 10 miles long, with winds of between 111 and 135 miles per hour.Several homes were damaged as well as businesses in town.Cars and even one truck were flipped.Downed trees and power lines blocked some streets, cutting power to much of the city.Chief Paul Phillipp says, 'The main power lines coming in from the north - if you've been out there at all, the power lines are just snapped all over the place, so quite a significant amount of devastation there."One man who rode the storm out in a shed that was rolled by the twister was slightly injured.No word yet on what the cost of the damage will be.

See more at KEYC-TV's web site here.

KTTC-TV in Austin has some great coverage on the tornado here.

Report says U.S. already feeling the effects of global warming

A government climate-change report predicts increases in very high temperatures, which scientists say will have wide-ranging affects.

WASHINGTON (ABP) -- A new government study on climate change says the United States is already feeling effects of human-induced global warming.

A report released June 16 by the U.S. Global Change Research Program says global warming is "unequivocal and primarily human-induced." It says climate changes underway in the United States probably will grow, and how much depends on how policy makers respond.

"First and foremost, human-induced climate change is a reality, not only in remote polar regions and in small tropical islands, but every place around the country, in our own backyards," Jane Lubchenco, director of the office of science and technology policy at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said in a press conference at the report's release.

Areas of Florida illustrated in red would be under water with a three-foot sea rise in sea level, which is predicted for this century, the report say.

The complete article is here.

Government study warns of climate change effects

By JOHN M. BRODER

Published: June 16, 2009

WASHINGTON — The impact of a changing climate is already being felt across the United States, like shifting migration patterns of butterflies in the West and heavier downpours in the Midwest and East, according to a government study to be released on Tuesday.

Even if the nation takes significant steps to slow emissions of heat-trapping gases, the impact of global warming is expected to become more severe in coming years, the report says, affecting farms and forests, coastlines and floodplains, water and energy supplies, transportation and human health.

The complete New York Times article is here:

Click here to go to the United States Global Change Research Program, charged with "integrating federal research on climate and global change"

Making case for climate as driver of migration

By TOM ZELLER Jr.

Published: June 14, 2009

NEW YORK — A new report on human migration and climate change, released as delegates from 182 countries gathered in Bonn over the past two weeks to continue hammering out some preliminary language for a new global climate treaty, made its case plainly:

“The impacts of climate change are already causing migration and displacement,” the document began, adding that by midcentury, “the prospects for the scope and scale could vastly exceed anything that has occurred before.”

The study, titled “In Search of Shelter” and written by a large cast from several nongovernmental organizations, including the United Nations, CARE International and Columbia University, combined climatological and demographic data with field interviews of migrants already on the move. The aim was to provide an overview, with rich maps and an oft-lacking dose of empiricism, of where the changing environment is driving decision-making on the ground and which areas are likely to be hit hardest if things get worse.

The New York Times article is here.

Don't try this at home: driving INTO a tornado

I've seen people do some pretty dumb things, and then post them to YouTube. But nothing prepared me for this video clip. These guys have reinforced and fortified a vehicle with armor, with the goal of driving INTO a tornado. I know, sounds very Darwinian, doesn't it? Talk about thinning the herd. Do not do this in a Chevy Lumina or gently-used minivan. These guys were lucky they didn't become a big hunk of airborne debris traveling at 200 mph. To see the wild video for yourself, from the recent Goshen county, Wyoming tornado, click here.

14 year old German boy survives meteorite strike

So you think you had a tough day? Check out this 14 year old, who was hit by a meteorite traveling at 30,000 and lived to tell about it. This happened in Germany, and suddenly the kid is a Super Hero in the local media! It's quite an amazing story. For the complete (eye-opening) story in Gizmodo click here.

Fickle breezes: study says climate change means lower wind speeds

By Keith Johnson

Chalk up another casualty of climate change: Wind speeds in many parts of the U.S. seem to be decreasing, which could make life tougher for the wind industry.

A study to be published later this summer says that climate change has led to lower average wind speeds in the Midwest and eastern part of the U.S., AP reports.

If true—and the study goes against what most computer models predict will happen—it seems to be because rising temperatures at the poles change pressure patterns around the globe, which leads to less wind. From AP’s story:

“It’s a very large effect,” said study co-author Eugene Takle, a professor of atmospheric science at Iowa State University. In some places in the Midwest, the trend shows a 10 percent drop or more over a decade. That adds up when the average wind speed in the region is about 10 to 12 miles per hour. There’s been a jump in the number of low or no wind days in the Midwest, said the study’s lead author, Sara Pryor, an atmospheric scientist at Indiana University. Wind measurements plotted out on U.S. maps by Pryor show wind speeds falling mostly along and east of the Mississippi River. Some areas that are banking on wind power, such as west Texas and parts of the Northern Plains, do not show winds slowing nearly as much. Yet, states such as Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Kansas, Virginia, Louisiana, Georgia, northern Maine and western Montana show some of the biggest drop in wind speeds."

(If true this would have profound impacts, including a drastic implication on turbines as a source of alternative energy. For the AP article and a thoughtful blog in the Wall Street Journal click here).

Storm Chasers from Australia make a trip to the U.S.

Storm Chasers from Australia make a trip to the U.S.

Thanks to Rich Koivisto, a good friend of mine from Duluth, for this next story. Friends of his from Australia recently made a trip to the United States to catch some wild weather, see the Great Lakes and take lots of pictures! Read about their journey, which took them from just north of Mexico to Lake Superior. The 26 day road trip can be seen here


Check out day 18 when Clyve and Jane (from Down Under) see Lake Superior for the first time - a dream come true!

Want more Australian weather? Check here

As for my friend, Rich Koivisto, his pictures are featured in the Australian Storm Chasing web site here and here and here - here's one of them

Staring up into the "eye" of a tornado

(The Weather Channel caught some amazing video of a tornado in Wyoming over the weekend. They were tagging along with the Vortex2 storm chasers, a huge team of scientists trying to intercept - and study developing tornadoes, using DOW, Doppler on wheels, weather balloons, and a small army of volunteers surrounding tornadic storms with weather instruments. The goal: shed light on how tornadoes form, why some go on to intensify while others weaken rapidly. Word to the wise: don't try this at home!)

To see an amazing tornado clip on MSN.com click here.

What really happened on Air France Flight 447?

The Air France 447 mystery may never be solved beyond a shadow of doubt, but there are some telling, tragic clues to consider based on what we know about the airplane systems and the extreme weather and aerodynamic conditions it encountered before it went down a week ago.

First, a bit of aerodynamics: The doomed Airbus A-330-200 was flying ever so close to its maximum altitude – in a zone pilots call the “Coffin Corner”. It refers to the edge of so-called “flight envelope” of an aircraft. At this altitude, the air is much thinner and that significantly narrows the swath of speed at which the airplane can safely operate.

Check out the complete post at trueslant.com.

(I was always a big fan of Miles O'Brien at CNN, who did a masterful job with science and space-related stories. I was shocked when they let him go last year - to save money, I guess, but what a loss. He is starting his own blog site where you can hear he take on science, astronomy, and aviation-related stories. Here is a thoughtful post on what may have really happened during Air France #447's doomed flight from Brazil to Paris. The more I thought about it, the more I realized that this is a very believable scenario, based on what little we know from the transcript of the last moments).

Click here to read the rest of Miles' post, including a detailed meteorological explanation of a MCS, a Mesoscale Convective System - a broad swarm of severe thunderstorms that tends to form at night. Tim Vasquez has posted comprehensive information on weather conditions encountered by the Air France flight the night of the apparent crash, another very good read.

New type of cloud discovered?

An "asperatus" cloud rolls over New Zealand's South Island in an undated picture.

This apparently new class of clouds is still a mystery. But experts suspect asperatus clouds' choppy undersides may be due to strong winds disturbing previously stable layers of warm and cold air.

Asperatus clouds may spur the first new classification in the World Meteorological Organization's International Cloud Atlas since the 1950s, Gavin Pretor-Pinney said.

The NationalGeographic.com article is here.

Air France crash may show pilots can be overwhelmed by weather

By John Hughes

June 4 (Bloomberg) -- The crash of an Air France jet this week over a remote stretch of the Atlantic Ocean may show the limits of pilots’ ability to cope with severe weather even after decades of advances in technology, analysts said.

The plane was traveling in an area that lacked coverage from ground-based radar, which controllers otherwise can use to help spot storms, said William Voss, head of the Flight Safety Foundation. With less than one flight an hour in the region, there also would have been few advance reports on conditions from other pilots, he said.

The possibility that storms may have contributed to the crash is an early focus of inquiry as authorities search for the “black box” voice and data recorders that would provide more detailed information of what happened on board. While weather causes fewer crashes than in the past because of advances in radar, pilots still depend on outside guidance to steer clear of dangerous squalls.

“No captain in his right mind would drill a modern airliner through a thunderstorm,” said Jack Casey, a former airline pilot and consultant at Safety Operating Systems LLC in Washington. “It’s just not done.”

The entire Bloomberg article is here.

Russian climatologist blames global warming for Air France crash

Once again, a widely publicized tragedy is being blamed on man-caused global warming.

Warming alarmists have often bemoaned air travel saying it increases the threat of global warming, but this time they’re blaming the phenomenon for the tragedy surrounding Air France Flight 447. That flight is believed to have crashed in the Atlantic Ocean and have claimed up to 228 lives.

Alexei Kokorin, a climatologist for the left-wing World Wildlife Fund’s Russia Climate Program, blamed global warming for the crash. He told Russia Today (RT) on June 4 global warming is to blame for making the weather conditions some think is to blame for the crash more severe.

“A consequence of global warming is that the frequency and severity of such events (severe weather conditions) is higher,” Kokorin said. “Unfortunately, the risk for airplanes, especially in tropical areas above water, will be higher. This could be difficult for pilots to understand.

(Not sure I'm buying this theory, but under the heading of "don't rule anything out" I thought I'd pass this along. I fear we may never know what brought that plane down. The bottom of the Atlantic is nearly 5 miles below the surface; the black box will probably never be recovered). For the complete article click here.

Upper Midwest Storm Chaser Community - www.f5chaser.com

Upper Midwest Storm Chaser Community - www.f5chaser.com

Do you have an interest in storms/weather? Here's your chance to get to know a few of the local (Upper Midwest) storm chaser that live and breathe weather. Some are meteorologist, some are not, but it doesn't matter... if you have an interest or want to know more check it out. Current members have a deep desire to share, teach and discuss all weather related and sometimes non-weather (scientific) goings on.

Check it out, you won't be disappointed... there's a lot of good information/help there!

www.f5chaser.com

Air France 447, a detailed meteorological analysis

Air France flight 447 (AF447), an Airbus A330 widebody jet, was reported missing in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the early morning hours of June 1, 2009. The plane was enroute from Rio de Janeiro (SBGL) to Paris (LFPG). Speculation suggested that the plane may have flown into a thunderstorm. The objective of this study was to isolate the aircraft's location against high-resolution satellite images from GOES-10 to identify any association with thunderstorm activity. Breakup of a plane at higher altitudes in a thunderstorm is not unprecedented; Northwest Flight 705 in 1963 and more recently Pulkovo Aviation Flight 612 in 2006 are clear examples.

Back in the 1990s I did flight route forecasting for the Air Force. One of my assignments in summer 1994 was forecasting was the sector between Mombasa, Kenya and Cairo, Egypt for C-5 and C-141 aircraft. The Sudan region had tropical MCS activity similar to this with little in the way of sensor data, so this incident holds some special interest for me as one of our C-5s could easily have followed a very similar fate. Using what's available to me I decided to do a little analysis and see if I could determine anything about the fate of AF447 and maybe through some circuitous, indirect means help give authorities some clues on where to look.

(There's a lot of erroneous information floating around out there; we're still dealing with shear speculation, but this is the best meteorological analysis I've seen yet about what MIGHT have happened on the trans-Atlantic flight and the weather conditions involved). Click here for all the details.

How I captured the perfect storm

A Jack Russell puppy was the first to sense the danger. With ears pinned back, it cowered in the corner, whimpering, trembling. Hail the size of golf balls started smashing against the windows, and then came rain, torrential, relentless, deafening. Women and children were crying and men with tattoos on their tree-trunk biceps looked anxiously about them. Thunder shook the building and rattled our souls. A lightening strike momentarily turned everything a shocking blue before plunging us into darkness.

Suddenly, a siren sounded outside. "Tornado warning!" shrieked a voice from the darkness. "OK, people, listen up!" shouted another voice behind a flickering torch beam. "Everybody, into the walk-in refrigerator. Now!"

It was May, 2008 and I was in a petrol station in Nebraska after seven weeks travelling the American Midwest pursuing tornadoes during the most active tornado season for 50 years. Already 90 people had died, but the season was far from over. As an anthropologist and geographer, I am fascinated by the complex relationship between man and nature, and wanted to get up close and personal with a twister.

Why, I wanted to know, do people insist on living in climatic danger zones? Why do they choose to coexist with natural hazards that could kill or injure them on a seasonal basis? And, as a filmmaker and adventurer, I also wanted the adrenalin buzz of rubbing shoulders with this ferocity – and capturing it on film.

(This is a terrific article, with video highlights. Click here to read the entire post).

Fewest sunspots since 1928

ABOVE: A solar flare observed in Dec. 2006 by NOAA's GOES-13 satellite.

May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.

"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression.

"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

The complete NASA press release is here. And yes, there is a distinct possibility that the lack of sunspots may be having some impact on recent cooling trends over the arctic and much of North America. The link has not been proven, but researchers are studying a potential correlation between a dearth of sunspot activity and observed temperatures here on Earth.

Risks in rain & shine

Golf is good for your health — for the exercise, the fresh air and the socialization benefits. Heck, doing the math as you try to keep track of all the side bets is good stimulus for the brain.

But we can get too much of a good thing, and I’m not talking about hand calluses or back spasms. Dangerous extremes lurk on the golf course. Two golf hazards not discussed nearly enough are the risk of skin cancer from sun exposure and the peril of lightning.

If you play enough golf, you are regularly exposed to both.

Dermatologists say golfers are notoriously poor at protecting themselves from sun damage and frequently need treatment for harmful lesions on ears, hands and noses. And in a typical year, lightning kills more people than tornadoes or hurricanes. A golf course is an especially dangerous place during a thunderstorm because it has isolated, tall trees and wide-open spaces where golfers can be the tallest target.

Read the complete (and excellent) article from the New York Times here.